TRREB’s 2026 market outlook, simplified.

Last week, the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) released its 2026 GTA Housing Market Outlook. It’s detailed and data-heavy, so we've created this summary and answer questions people are asking like...

• Who’s actually buying in today’s market and what’s holding others back?

• Is affordability truly improving or just less strained than it was?

• Where should housing demand be based on population and employment, and why isn’t it showing up in the sales numbers?

• How is supply, confidence, and policy pressures shaping what comes next?

Most importantly, you’ll learn what it all means for you, regardless of whether you’re buying, selling, renting, or just keeping your finger on the pulse. 

The big picture for 2026

TRREB expects the GTA housing market in 2026 to look very similar to 2025. Home sales are forecast in the range of 60,000 to 70,000 transactions. That would be flat to mildly higher than last year, but still well below what population growth and employment levels would normally support.

Prices are expected to remain contained. The average GTA price is forecast between $1.0M and $1.03M. According to TRREB, this reflects higher inventory and continued buyer caution vs. distress in the market.

Overall, the market is looking pretty balanced, with a slight tilt toward buyers. Listings are up across all home types, and the pace of sales has not been strong enough to meaningfully reduce supply.

Prices, rates, and affordability

The past few years provide some good context. Average GTA prices peaked around $1.18M in 2022. By 2025, prices had eased to about $1.07M. TRREB’s forecast for 2026 points to more stabilization rather than a sharp rebound or significant drop.

Mortgage rates have played a big role. Rates rose into the mid-6% range in 2023, then declined into the low-4% range by 2025. Even with prices still high, lower rates have reduced monthly payment pressure compared to the peak.

TRREB measures affordability by tracking the share of household income going toward mortgage principal and interest. That figure peaked at around 45% in late 2023 and declined into the low-30% range by mid-2025. The report describes this change as a marked improvement in affordability, relative to recent years.

Supply, inventory, and buyer’s leverage

Supply is one of the defining features of today's market. Active listings have increased significantly across all segments, including detached homes, condos, townhomes, and semis. By 2025, the number of homes for sale was well above levels seen between 2020 and 2022.

To describe market balance, TRREB uses months of inventory (MOI) which estimates how long it would take to sell all listings at the current pace of sales. Lower numbers mean a tighter market, while higher numbers suggest more choice and less urgency.

In 2021, most GTA segments were below one MOI. By 2025, MOI had risen to roughly four to six months or more, depending on the property type. That range is generally considered balanced, with some segments leaning toward buyers.

TRREB expects inventory to remain elevated into 2026, particularly in the first half of the year. As a result, price growth is expected to stay pretty modest. Any strengthening later in the year would depend more on improving confidence in the economy than on tightening supply.

• What this means for buyers

More inventory usually means more choice and more time. Buyers are less likely to feel rushed and more often able to negotiate price, terms, and conditions, especially in segments with the highest supply.

• What this means for sellers

Higher inventory means more competition. Homes priced above comparable options tend to sit longer and may require price adjustments. In this kind of market, pricing accuracy and clarity around condition matter more than they did in tighter years.

Demand, intentions, and consumer confidence

TRREB supplements its market data with research from Ipsos, a global public opinion and market research firm that surveys households across the GTA.

One of the most interesting findings is the gap between potential demand and actual sales. Based on employment and population levels, the GTA could support well over 100,000 home sales per year. But actual sales have remained closer to the low-60,000 range from 2023 through 2025.

Buying intentions have softened. Only about 7% of respondents say they're "very likely" to buy a home in the next year, with another 22% saying they are "likely". Both figures are lower than levels seen between 2017 and 2022.

Economic confidence has also declined. By late 2025, only about one-third of respondents rated the national economy as "good" or "somewhat good", down from closer to half in 2020.

Among those who say they're "somewhat likely" to buy, the most common reasons for holding back are the rising cost of living, economic uncertainty, concerns about affordability, and job security.

Renters and the affordability gap

Ipsos data highlights an ongoing affordability gap. On average, households report they can afford about $2,673 per month for a mortgage. They estimate that a home meeting their needs would require a payment closer to $3,262 per month. That leaves a gap of roughly $589.

For renters, the pressure point has shifted. Renters say their rent would need to rise by more than $500 per month, on average, before they would feel pushed to buy. That threshold is higher than the roughly $300-$400 before the pandemic.

Rental data from condos and purpose-built rentals shows slower rent growth and higher vacancy rates in 2024 and 2025 as more units came to market. Even so, rents remain high in absolute terms, and affordability continues to be a top concern across the region.

First-time buyers, equity, and taxes

First-time buyers remain a central part of the market. Intentions data suggests roughly 45% of potential buyers in 2026 will be first-time buyers. Ipsos data shows they already make up a large share of recent purchases.

Down payment levels remain relatively strong. On average, down payments are around 30% or more of the purchase price, including among first-time buyers. Funding sources include savings outside RRSPs, RRSPs, equity from existing homes, and family assistance. For many first-time buyers, help from parents or extended family plays a meaningful role.

Taxes continue to weigh heavily on affordability, and the pain points look different across the GTA. Between 85% and 89% of respondents agree that high taxes make home ownership less affordable, and more than 80% say additional taxes could force them to delay or abandon buying plans. When people say “high taxes,” they’re mostly thinking about housing‑related taxes and fees: the double layer of provincial and Toronto municipal land transfer tax, development charges and other government fees that get built into new home prices, and ongoing property taxes. 

In the City of Toronto, homeowners face one of the lowest residential property tax rates in the region (about 0.75% in 2025) but must pay both provincial and municipal land transfer tax, which can easily exceed $30,000 on an average GTA‑priced home. 

In surrounding municipalities like Mississauga, the property tax rate is higher (about 1.03% in 2025) but buyers do not pay Toronto’s extra municipal land transfer tax, so households there often feel more pressure from annual property tax bills, while Toronto buyers feel it more acutely at closing in the form of land transfer tax.

Population growth and long-term pressure

Despite near-term caution, population fundamentals are still strong. Permanent immigration into the GTA has remained positive through 2024 and 2025, even as the number of non-permanent residents has declined. Inter-provincial migration is slightly negative, but overall population growth continues.

TRREB and Ipsos both note that while 2026 may feel more favourable from an inventory and pricing perspective, the underlying challenge hasn't changed. Housing remains slow and costly to build, and population growth continues to add pressure over time.

Once interest rates and confidence normalize, those structural factors are expected to re-emerge more clearly in the market.

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Today’s takeaways:

• The GTA housing market in 2026 is expected to look a lot like 2025

• Sales are forecast to remain well below what population growth would normally support

• Prices are expected to stay relatively flat (around the $1.0M–$1.03M range)

• Higher inventory is keeping the market balanced with more choice than we’ve seen in years

• Affordability has improved compared to 2022–2023 as interest rates have come down, but confidence remains low, which is why activity hasn’t picked up more meaningfully

Here’s a link to TRREB’s 2026 Market Outlook if you want to dig deeper, and if you have any questions at all, reach out anytime.