Reading the room, not a crystal ball

Let’s start with how things wrapped up in real estate last year: It ended on a bit of a low note. December wasn’t great. Sales were down. Prices were down. And honestly, Q4 was the hardest market I’ve experienced in my 9 years of supporting clients in their real estate transactions. Buyers weren’t in a rush. They were negotiating hard and sitting with decisions longer than usual.

Most of the 2026 predictions say we’ll see more sales, but not necessarily higher prices. Small declines are expected to continue. Which aligns with what I’m seeing: Interest rates and the economy are still the big things to watch.

If you go through the MLS today, there’s inventory, but how much of it is what people really want to buy?

People who own the good homes may not want to sell right now.

If you’ve loved your home and taken good care of it, you likely wouldn’t sell.

The gap between condo and house prices is growing, so if you’re downsizing, the math might look decent. However, if you’re not going to get the number you had in mind, you’ll probably wait, especially since most agree, the condo market needs a couple more years to rebound. I have a client who recently decided to renew their mortgage instead of selling and buying a condo, because based on what they’re seeing, it just doesn’t make sense for them right now.

If you’re planning to cash out and rent (something I often recommend for folks later in life) chances are you’re waiting too. Rents won’t likely change much over the next couple of years to make it worth selling when buyers are pushing for discounts.

Ok, so who IS selling then? 

• People looking to trade up. That’s who I’m seeing most right now. They’re willing to take less on their current home because they’re finally seeing homes that were out of reach before come into play. 

• People who bought at the peak and are now up for renewal and overextended. Those who don’t really have a choice.

• Senior homeowners whose needs have changed and may benefit from additional care or support, and need to move as a result.

For those waiting for spring to sell…

Everyone thinks spring is the sweet spot, which means everyone aims for spring. Which also means more competition. So if you need to sell for whatever reason, doing it now means more eyes on your place, and fewer similar homes to compare it to. That makes a big difference.  

Buyers who just started looking are ready. 

We listed a property late last year (not usually my favourite timing, but my clients felt more comfortable with it). It was on the market for 42 days and didn’t sell. We decided to take a break for the holidays and I had my eye on January.

We re-listed January 8. Immediately we had 10 showings booked, a busy open house, and two offers by January 11. Sold firm.

There’s something about the new year that brings out a fresh set of buyers, and they want to get moving. Buying now means they move in, you guessed it, during the spring. They’re ahead of the game.

Heading into 2026, consider this...

I’ll always share what I see and hear first-hand from buyers in the market, especially now, as I try to wrap my head around what to expect in 2026. 

Remember I can’t predict the future, but if I were to make a guess, I’ll say this: At my open house last weekend, I met multiple buyers who had condos to sell. I think they’re done waiting for the condo market to bounce back. They’re going to do everything they can to offload their unit and get into a house (remember the trade up sellers I’m seeing). This may put even more pressure on condo prices.

So if you’re shopping for condos, now’s the time to be aggressive, especially if the seller is an end-user (i.e. living in the unit vs. an investor). If they’re selling, chances are they’ve got somewhere to go, and they’ll listen to what you have to say because the opportunity in front of them is a house. 

Which brings me back to what I’ve been thinking: If you have a great house, I think it’ll do better than what’s predicted right now. People aren’t really saying this, but I don’t think there will be a lot of great homes on the market and I believe there will be enough demand to scoop them up.

And if you’re looking to buy? Don’t get too caught up in move-in ready homes that everyone’s fighting over. The best deals are in the homes that need some work. Buy that, make it yours, and you’ll save a ton of money.

Every situation is unique, so if you want to talk through yours, we’re always here to chat.