Is the Toronto market really heating up?

You've probably seen the headlines this week, that the Toronto housing market is gaining momentum. Here's the truth: sales didn't spike in July, they barely moved, down 0.9% from last July. What’s actually happened is more interesting, and it's the part most headlines are skipping.

New listings fell off a cliff: down 17.8% year-over-year, and active listings across the GTA are down 12.1%. So while demand held roughly steady, the number of homes coming to market shrank big time. That's not a "plenty of choice" market anymore, it's a narrowing one. And when demand holds while supply pulls back that fast, a market tightens, whether prices show it yet or not.

So the takeaway? It's not about sales going up, it’s about supply going down faster than demand did.

Let’s double down on home types

Zoom out and the GTA looks balanced, but zoom in and the picture changes depending on what kind of home we’re talking about.

Detached homes are sitting in balanced territory across the GTA. Inside Toronto proper, it's a touch tighter than that.

Semi-detached homes have quietly become a seller's market in most areas. Inventory is thin, around 2-2.5 months, which means that's roughly how long it'd take to sell everything currently listed at the current pace, and homes are routinely selling at, or above asking.

Condos are the soft spot. They're at the high end of balanced, and in some pockets, depending on size and price point, leaning into buyer's market territory. If you're selling a condo right now, it’s worth planning with open eyes.

Neighbourhood vs. city-wide numbers 

Where you buy or sell in the city matters more than whatever the GTA headline number says.

East is the tightest, most competitive pocket in Toronto, with 3.6 months of inventory, and homes selling at 101% of asking. Multiple offers are still happening here.

West is right behind, with 4.3 months of inventory, 98% of asking. It’s steady, not frantic.

Central is the outlier with 5.2 months of inventory, 96% of asking. Some of that's the sheer volume of condos downtown pulling the number up. Here's what many don't realize though: even if you strip condos out entirely, Central still runs close to four months of inventory. It's softer than East or West on freehold homes too, not just condos.

Bottom line: We’re in a market that’s finding its footing, not one about to take off. Don't expect a growth story in the back half of the year. Expect prices to level off as thinner new listings meet demand that's steady but not urgent.