Everyone’s talking about real estate, but most are reading it wrong.

Sales are down, yes, but that narrative hides the real story: Toronto isn’t one market right now, it’s two. Freeholds are balanced and moving. Condos are under pressure. If you lump them together, you miss the insights that matter and risk making the wrong move.

Let’s start with freeholds.

A mix of detached homes, semis, and row houses. Right now, it's balanced. In April, the average sale price was $1.3M, and 43% of listings sold over asking.

Homes moved an average of 11 days, which tells us buyers are engaged, especially when a property is well-priced. This is key, because markets are sensitive and can easily be influenced by how on or off the pricing of a property is. 

Here’s more data to fill out the story…

There were 3,424 active freehold listings and 1,033 sales last month, putting Months Of Inventory (MOI) at 3.3, right in the sweet spot for a balanced market.

Year-over-year, average prices have dipped slightly, but nothing dramatic. It’s a normalization, not a crash. A settling after the peaks of previous years.

Sellers may not see bidding wars, but they don’t need to panic. This is a healthy, functioning market with steady demand.

The condo market is a different story.

With 6,983 active listings and only 1,005 sales in April, condos are sitting at nearly 7 MOI, deep into buyer’s market territory.

The average sale price was $640K, with just 17% of units selling over asking because they were either priced right—props to the listing agents—or priced below market value to get attention. 

Condos also took longer to sell, with an average of 24 days on market. That extra lag reflects oversupply, softer demand, and a growing sense of buyer hesitation.

The average condo price is down more noticeably in freehold. Looking ahead, pressure is likely to increase: Urbanation estimates 31K new condo units will be completed in 2025. That’s more supply than demand, which could stretch timelines even further and keep prices under pressure.

Now, when you combine the two segments, you get a citywide average sale price of $945K, an MOI of 5.3.

And average prices that appear to be falling—technically true but misleading. The overall averages are being pulled down by the condo segment, masking the relative stability of freeholds.

For sellers, relying on citywide stats might lead to pricing too high or too low.

For buyers, the wrong takeaway translates to missed opportunities. 

The key is knowing which market you’re actually in and how to read it.

So yes, sales are down and prices have softened. But that doesn’t mean the entire market is struggling. Lower prices could invite more buyers. Never lose sight of that. 

This isn’t one market, it’s two. Now that you know, you're more prepared no matter what you do.